The Daily Grind Gets Pricier: What’s Brewing with Coffee Costs in 2025?
We believe every cup tells a story—and lately, that story includes a few unexpected twists. If your favorite coffee feels like it’s costing more than it used to, you’re not imagining things. Prices are rising, and there are a few key reasons why.
Let’s take a look at what’s brewing.
🌦️ Climate & Crops: Nature’s Influence on Your Cup
Coffee plants are sensitive souls, thriving under very specific conditions. When the weather shifts, so does the supply—and that ripple effect eventually reaches your cup.
In Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, the 2025 Arabica harvest is projected to decline by 13.5% due to drought and heat stress (Reuters). Arabica beans are known for their nuanced flavors and are a major part of the specialty coffee segment, so a reduced yield here often means prices go up.
On the flip side, Brazil’s Robusta harvest is set to hit a record high—24.7 million bags—thanks to favorable conditions in Espírito Santo and Bahia (Reuters). Robusta can help stabilize overall supply, but it won’t close the pricing gap for Arabica-focused cafés and roasters.
Colombia, another top Arabica producer, is expecting a 5.3% production decline in the 2025/26 season due to weather and infrastructure challenges (Daily Coffee News). With two major suppliers forecasting lower yields, the market is tightening—and costs are climbing.
🚢 Supply Chains & Tariffs: The Long Journey from Farm to Cup
From hillside farms to your favorite mug, coffee takes a long and complicated journey—and this year, that journey’s gotten even more expensive.
Global shipping lanes are still under stress. Disruptions in the Red Sea have forced rerouting of vessels, raising freight costs significantly. Add in port congestion at U.S. docks and ongoing labor shortages, and you've got higher delivery costs at nearly every point in the chain.
Domestically, roasting operations are also feeling the pinch. Energy prices have gone up. Packaging materials like kraft bags and liners are more expensive. And shipping roasted coffee across the U.S. costs more due to higher carrier surcharges.
Then there are the tariffs. As of April 2025, the U.S. added a 10% base tariff on all coffee imports, with even higher rates for countries like Vietnam (46%) and Indonesia (32%) (Daily Coffee News, Business Insider). For roasters relying on beans from these regions, those added costs either cut into margins—or end up passed on to customers.
📈 Demand Dynamics: Sipping More Than Ever
Despite these challenges, our love for coffee remains unwavering. In fact, two-thirds of American adults drink coffee daily—a figure that’s been steadily rising (National Coffee Association).
The U.S. coffee market is thriving, with at-home consumption projected to reach $96.45 billion in 2025, and out-of-home revenue (from cafés and restaurants) expected to hit $376.70 billion (GourmetPro).
💡 Navigating the New Normal
We get it—rising prices aren’t ideal. But with a little intention, there are ways to stay grounded in your daily ritual:
- Brew smarter: French press, AeroPress, or pour-over methods can stretch your beans a bit further.
- Buy whole beans: Grinding fresh improves flavor and shelf life.
- Watch for deals: Keep an eye out for bundle offers or seasonal specials.
- Support ethically sourced coffee: Often pricier, but more sustainable—for both the farmers and the future of coffee.
🔮 Looking Ahead
Between climate shifts, global logistics, and economic policies, the future of coffee pricing will keep evolving. But at Notes Coffee Bar, our mission stays the same: to serve you with care, creativity, and an honest cup.